Are rising energy costs returning the worldwide economy to a smattering of local economies? Perhaps, according to at least one economist.
At the recent CoreNet Summit in Las Vegas, economist Jeff Rubin, the keynote speaker, made a fascinating case for why our current global economic model no longer works. He sees the paradigm shifting to more locally based economies. Why? energy costs! Continually rising energy costs will eventually make shipping both raw materials and finished goods half-way around the world too costly. China, for example, will serve other asian nations. The fuel costs, though, will force it to limit exporting to the U.S. market. These expenditures will far outweigh any wage differential. LIkewise, energy costs will lead to a renaissance in agricultural requiring localities to grow more food for their own markets. Back in the ’60s as a child, I recall grocery advertising that read “seasonal vegetables.” Those signs may very likely be making a comeback.
Another response to higher energy costs will be the impact upon land use planning. Suburban sprawl will become uneconomic. More land will be needed for agricultural. People and jobs will relocate near each other. Mother nature will eventually reclaim overbuilt land.
As a community economic developer, I find Jeff’s new paradigm a bit simplistic, but his main points are borne out in regional land use planning scenarios across the nation.
For information about Chicago Metro Area 2040 economic and land planning, visit http://www.goto2040.org/.
Chris j Manheim, President
Manheim Solutions.com
Chicago Chapter CoreNet Global Chairman, Economic Development Committee
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